Revision of annual forecasts of dynamics of gross national product has led to scale correction in the Russian market. Following the results of second half of June the Russian indexes have fallen to 15 %, having reacted to decrease in forecasts of economic growth of the Russian economy in 2009 the American stock exchanges have decreased on 3-5 % following the results of this period.
If in the beginning of year it was a question of gross national product decrease on 2-6 % it becomes now clear, what even 6 percent falling will be the optimistical scenario. Under forecasts of the World bank, world gross national product it will be reduced to 3 % instead of 1,7 %. Across Russia estimations are reconsidered with-4,5 % to-7,5 %. For January-May falling of Russian gross national product has made 10,2 %, in May the economy has fallen to 11 % in comparison with previous year. According to Credit Suisse, gross national product falling in 2009 will be closer to 8 %. The wave of revision of forecasts has coincided with falling of the prices for oil and has caused leaving of the Russian share market in a red zone. The telecommunication sector has not avoided falling – branch indexes have fallen together with the market.
There has passed a wave of sales in papers MRK which is connected with the future re-structuring of Svyazinvest and risk of that actions MRK can be converted in papers of the incorporated company on unprofitable factors. In the end of June UniCfedit Securities withdrew the recommendations for actions MRK, explaining the decision low liquidity of papers, absence of catalysts of their growth and also personnel shifts. Dynamics of a course change of actions of the Russian public IKT-COMPANIES, and also the basic branch indexes. A source: the Data of stock exchanges, Bank of Moscow.
Regional communication statements in June have finished the reporting publication on MSFO following the results of 2008 In most cases the data have been met by the market negatively – following the results of June-July of action MRK have appeared among leaders of falling.
The reporting of Volgatelekoma can be estimated as neutral – the company has a little increased profitability on OIBDA, the company debts are insignificant and represent, basically, rouble loans.
Sibirtelekom has shown advancing growth of expenses on operational activity. The profit on operational activity has decreased for Dohody Sibirtelekoma 420 million to the taxation were reduced to the big size – Difference speaks 1804 million losses on revaluation of course differences – the considerable part of a debt of the company is nominated in dollars.
The forecast of management for 2009 looks optimistically: rates of increase of incomes of new services (Internet access) to 2008 grew faster the expectations, similar dynamics will remain and in 2009 better the market papers of Dalsvjazi looked, on Friday the reporting on MSFO following the results of 1st quarter 2009 Maximum in comparison with others MRK the share of a gain from new services has led to that crisis practically has not affected financial indicators of the operator. The net profit following the results of the period has grown on 40 %, the user's base of users ShPD for a year has increased by 70 %, the gain in 1st quarter in comparison with the end of the year has made 10 %. The news stream on other communication statements was more poor. FAS MTS to get 100 % of actions of Comstar. Quotations of the Russian cellular operators behind ocean have shown dynamics worse the market: MTS have fallen in price on 15 %, Vympelcom - on 10 %. Current week has begun with sales against becoming cheaper oil.
Following the results of Monday the Moscow Interbank Stock Exchange index has decreased on 3,5 %, the Moscow Interbank Stock Exchange-telecommunication index has fallen to 1,5 %. Over the weekend most possibly further decrease.
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